We are in a unique time in history. Our reality here in Miami and South Florida will keep diverging from the national narrative. If you are a real estate professional, this monthly market-dive and updated macro points is an essential tool for you.
We are in the early days of Miami's ascension. You need to be able to communicate this to your clients, as the national news homogenizes reality and will often get our story wrong.
Every month, you will be guided by me through a market update that
pin-points actionable insights.
This data will be presented in a 30+ minute video and you will be able to download the PDF.
You will also receive updated macro points that corroborate our Miami thesis as well as clear talking points.
Market analysis that you can watch as many times as you like.
Download the PDF that accompanies my video presentation.
Receive a clear outline of updated, market-driven talking points.
These talking points are designed for real estate professionals
The Miami story is writing itself, this is early days.
You will receive updated macro points that quantify the wealth & talent migration.
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Ana Bozovic has been publishing long term trend analysis on Analytics Miami for the past eight years. The reports analyze the Miami and South Florida real estate markets, and they have become an industry standard. This platform is powered by that data, and is custom tailored for effective use by real estate professionals.
To learn more, visit:
http://analytics.miami
http://analytics.miami/press http://analytics.miami/reports
I publish mini market updates and news commentary on social media.
Some recent videos are below.
Miami Single Family Real estate: buy now or hold?
The Miami Herald and journalist Rebecca San Juan asked me if South Floridians should buy now or wait. The question was specific to prices at or below the median resale SFH price.
Full report: https://analytics.miami/2023/09/06/macro-plus-miami-single-family-best-play-august-2023/
My answer:
Eespecially when it comes to single family, there is no value in waiting.
Reasons:
The main limiting factor in our marker is supply. At prices under $630K, we have 76% less inventory than pre Covid 2019 are down 42% yoy.
I do not see supply drastically changing because:- interest rates are unlikely to be as low as they were during ZIRP again in our lifetimes- there is no influx or SFH supply within proximity of the urban core, especially at lower price points.- macro forces pushing population to South Florida are in their infancy
WSJ & Krugman: What's the matter with NYC & LA? Miami is doing fine.
Extremely misleading headline & article from the WSJ & Paul Krugman's oped. Full report: https://analytics.miami/2023/08/09/whats-the-matter-with-miami-wsj-krugman-whats-them-matter-with-nyc-la/
We should ask: What's the matter with NYC & LA?T
he authors obfuscated the Brookings Institute study, which is the only source used by the WSJ. Their analysis of census data indicates that Miami-Dade & Miami bounced back to positive population growth in 2021-2022, while NYC and LA county diid not.
This article makes it sound like Miami-Dade's population loss during peak Covid was unique, alarming and prognosticative. It was none of those three. Brookings tracked 38 counties with populations over 500K.
Of those 38 counties, only 4 did not lose population during the peak covid. In 2021-2022, 11 counties flipped back to positive.
One of them was Miami Dade. As did the city of Miami. LA did not and NYC did not.
Honestly sounds like sour grapes to me.
The average income of the 3,644 migrants from Manhattan in 2020 was $1.2M.For the 8,841 New York filers & dependents moving to Miami-Dade County in 2020, avg income was $671,075.
Shift in America's Economic Center of Gravity
"Shift in Focus" -- you have all heard me say it. Now Bloomberg is reporting that the "$100B wealth migration tilts US economy's center of gravity south."
That is highly analogous to saying shift in focus :)Am glad the WSJ agrees with me 😉🌴💸
They have quantified an aspect of this shift:
For the first time, the 6 fastest growing South East states are contributing more to national GFP than the Washington-NY-Boston corridor.
This shift happened during Covid and shows no signs of reverting. Remember folks: momentum is real 🚀
The journal is reporting that 2.2M people moved to the south east over the past two years, taking $100B of income with them.
Miami Real Estate: new normal past $1K / square foot
There is a great deal of talk in the press about drops in residential transaction volume. Suffice it to say, some nuance is missing, as is cyclical context.
Full report here: https://analytics.miami/2023/08/17/miami-real-estate-new-normla-past-1k-square-foot/
Despite overall drops in transaction volume, market segments past $1K & $2K per square foot are outperforming pre Covid levels by up to 9x. This is something I find fascinating, and indicative of many trends.
-> The market is not a monolith. The vast majority of transactions are at lower price points. When we look at the overall percentage drop in sales volume, the action (or lack thereof) at lower price points obfuscates what is happening at higher price points.
-> A new normal is being set past $1K / square foot, this reflects the appetites of the incoming wealth & talent migration. Isolating by price-per-square foot lets us filter for new product.
We clearly see that the incoming wealth and talent migration is consuming new, expensive product. This is also a reflection of America's ongoing polarization and our shift away from 20th century epicenters.Example:
In Miami-Dade, sales of SFH past $2K / SF were up 650% Q2 2023 versus Q2 2019, pre Covid. This stat ties in to a theory I discussed in my interview with Karen Asprea, where I discussed how buying SFH within the precepts of Miami's urban core is like locking in land value with a townhouse in NYC 80 years ago.
We are in the early stages of a tremendous shift in our nation.
Join me and empower yourself. You too can Own The Miami Story and effectively communicate our market realities to your clients. #LongMiami
